The point spread is widely regarded as the great equalizer.
From that, we extract betting trends that many feel are actionable and profitable. However, they can also create confusion, which in turn creates betting opportunities in a different direction.
The Cleveland Cavaliers host the San Antonio Spurs as five-point favorites Friday with a total of 239.5 points.
Cleveland is perceived as an Eastern Conference contender after finishing with the top seed last year, while the Spurs are playing without the injured Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle. However, a deeper dive will show that San Antonio is underrated while the Cavs are a good team to fade in many situations.
The Cavs are 13-10 overall but they have padded that with a 9-1 mark against teams with a losing record. That leaves just a 4-9 record against the others.
Meanwhile, San Antonio is playing a different type of basketball without Wembanyama, but they are still a solid outfit. The Spurs are 7-2 since losing their star to injury, including 7-2 against the spread (ATS). They are well coached and have solid depth.
The Cavs were the NBA's second-best cover team last year at 52-38-1 ATS. But this year they are just 7-16 ATS, which ranks among the worst.
I have an 80-68-2 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is San Antonio catching five points in Cleveland (-110, BetMGM Sportsbook).
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He's also the rare personality who has documented success - 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.