Ten years ago, the signing of the Paris Agreement sparked powerful hope in the fight against climate change. As the 30 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) convenes in Belem, Brazil, from November 10 to 21, enthusiasm for the conference has largely waned.
One of the agreement's most ambitious goals - limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels - is on the verge of being exceeded, and 2025 is set to be one of the hottest years in history. The United States, the world's second-largest emitter of CO, is on the brink of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, while around the world, climate priorities are slipping down the agenda.
In this discouraging context, the challenge for this COP is to demonstrate that, despite the undermining efforts of Donald Trump, momentum in the fight against climate change remains unshakable. On September 23, speaking at the United Nations, the US president once again called the phenomenon "the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world." Not content with weakening multilateral climate action, he is now trying to draw other countries into his denial. From this perspective, Belem is a crucial test for maintaining the course set in 2015, despite increasingly aggressive opposition.
To do so, this summit must focus on implementation: Commitments must be realized, funding promises honored and the shift from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy sources must finally begin.
Several obstacles stand in the way of advancing this agenda. First, geopolitical tensions are shifting budget priorities toward rearmament. Second, the absence of global leadership is slowing climate diplomacy.
The European Union's determination is beginning to flag. Although Europe remains the only major bloc to have reduced its CO emissions in 2024, its ambitions have been scaled back under growing populist pressure, while budgetary room for maneuver is increasingly constrained.
With the EU losing momentum, China is reluctant to take over. Beijing's insistence on considering itself a developing country to minimize its responsibilities outweighs any temptation to use the US withdrawal as an opportunity to position itself as a leader in the energy transition.
In the face of these two blocs, Brazil has a vital role to play. The country can draw on experienced environmental diplomacy and a solid commitment to multilateralism, enabling it to bridge the gap between the Global South and North. But Brazil must prove it can overcome its own contradictions between its climate commitments and growing ambitions in oil extraction. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva called for "planning a just way to undo deforestation, overcome fossil fuels and mobilize the resources needed for those aims." That promise has yet to be fulfilled.
As for the US withdrawal, it should not be seen as a handicap to progress but, on the contrary, as an opportunity to put coordination ahead of confrontation. Belem must send a message of unity and perseverance; without it, the Paris Agreement will be permanently weakened.