The NFL opted to tweak its onside kick rule ahead of the start of the current season without doing much to increase the odds of the gamble paying off. Now, it sounds like the play could be on the verge of extinction, but the league may be missing the point based on the rationale behind the potential pivot.
It's been a little more than a century since the onside kick was introduced to football with the rules that were codified in 1923. It's always been a fairly low-percentage play, but it's one that's historically added an additional level of intrigue to the sport thanks to its ability to throw a very interesting wrench into the outcome of a game.
The NFL has tinkered with the rules governing the onside kick over the years.
In 2009, it banned the "cluster formation" favored among teams attempting to capitalize on what was essentially coordinated chaos before introducing a new rule in 2018 that required five players to line up on each side of the ball. The crackdown continued ahead of the 2024 season, as teams are not only banned from pulling out a surprise onside kick but can only attempt one if they're trailing in the fourth quarter.
The onside kick had a 13.5% conversion rate before the change that was instituted in 2018 went into effect, but those new rules helped nerfed a tactic that has only been successful 7.3% of the 41 times it's been attempted during the current season (which is slightly up from the 5.2% mark from last year).
The NFL actually considered eliminating the onside kick entirely before the ongoing campaign got underway, and according to Pro Football Talk, that proposal could be on the table once again in the offseason based on what a high-ranking official had to say about the matter.
Troy Vincent, the retired CB who currently serves as the NFL's Executive Vice President of Football Operations, didn't really mince words when he shared his thoughts on the current state of the onside kick in the wake of a league meeting in Texas earlier this week, saying:
"We need to look at that. That's a dead play. That is a ceremonial play. Very low recovery rate.
When we look at the kickoff and maybe where the touchback area should be during the offseason, we need to revisit the onside kick."
Last year, the Eagles proposed an alternative that would involve a team attempting a 4th-and-20 play from their own 20-yard line; based on data compiled between 2013 and 2022, the odds of a team converting on a fourth-down play that required them to gain 15 yards or more was 13.9%, and I don't think it's a stretch to assume it would fall to single digits on a 20-yard conversion attempt.
While I don't necessarily hate that proposal, I do think the NFL is rushing to solve a problem that isn't as dire as the league is attempting to make it out to be.
Part of the appeal of the onside kick is its status as a last-ditch and inherently low-percentage play with a high risk-reward factor. Additionally, swapping it out for an offensive play would only further reduce the importance of kicking and special teams units that have seen their influence increasingly diminished in recent years.
I don't consider myself a hard-nosed football purist by any means, but it would be a shame to see the onside kick go the way of the dinosaurs.