Tropical Storm Melissa continues to churn slowly across the Caribbean Sea, prompting new warnings and watches across Haiti and Jamaica. The system, which formed earlier this week, has begun to show signs of intensification, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued Thursday, October 23, 2025.
At 2 p.m. ET, Melissa was centered about 200 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and roughly 290 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It is moving north-northwest at just 2 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Meteorologists say the storm could become a hurricane within the next 48 hours and potentially reach major hurricane status by the end of the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern peninsula of Haiti, stretching from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane Watch has also been posted for the same area, along with Jamaica, as the storm's slow northward movement brings it closer to land.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the area, typically within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning, on the other hand, means that tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours. Residents across Haiti, Jamaica, and parts of the Dominican Republic have been urged to prepare for potential flooding, power outages, and dangerous surf.
"Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days," the NHC said in its advisory. "Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by more rapid intensification this weekend."
Melissa poses a serious rainfall threat to the region. Forecasters expect 6 to 12 inches of rain across southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with localized totals potentially exceeding 15 inches. Northern Haiti, northern Dominican Republic, and western Jamaica may receive 2 to 4 inches during the same period.
The combination of mountainous terrain and slow storm movement increases the risk of flash flooding and landslides, particularly in rural and coastal communities. Emergency officials in both Haiti and Jamaica have already begun to open temporary shelters as the first outer rainbands move across the islands.
Swells generated by Melissa are expected to reach portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba over the coming days, producing dangerous surf and rip currents. The National Weather Service has warned that conditions may worsen over the weekend as Melissa intensifies.
Melissa is forecast to move slowly north-northwest through the Caribbean before possibly curving more northwestward by late weekend. The storm is expected to encounter warm ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions, allowing for rapid intensification. If forecasts hold, Melissa could strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday and reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) by late Sunday.
While the storm currently poses no immediate threat to the U.S. mainland, forecasters emphasize that the situation remains fluid. Future shifts in track could determine whether Melissa continues westward toward Central America or veers northward next week.