Joe Prince-Wright, Nick Mendola, and Andy Edwards preview the Manchester City-Chelsea Matchweek 23 fixture, where two squads with depleted defenses are poised to play a high-scoring match.
And it's BACK! The Premier League Betting Power Rankings have returned! I know it's been miserable not hearing me talk about footy and give my favorite bets for each game. Well, worry not. I will provide two bets for every match and rank my favorite five in this week's column. As a friendly reminder, these are just recommendations and suggestions. Do not bet every single bet.
Liverpool don't win corners as frequently under Arne Slot as they did under Jurgen Klopp, but there will be a massive disparity in possession figures, shot attempts, and crosses into the box. Given Liverpool's dominance in those categories, especially at home, I like their chances to win a lot of corners.
Bet 2: Parlay: Mohamed Salah 2+ Shots on Target + Liverpool Moneyline (-145)
This bet is juiced and likely not palatable to everyone. However, this should be the game we see Salah explode. Ipswich are conceding 1.9 goals per contest but a whopping 5.36 shots on target per 90, which is fourth most in the Premier League. I like Salah to be aggressive and find the scoresheet, maybe twice. Liverpool win this one convincingly.
Will I be putting money on Brighton to win a match at -145? Absolutely not. However, despite coming off a big win at home against Tottenham, this Everton team is not good. Sean Dyche was a great relegation manager who could rescue points from impossible situations. Now bring in David Moyes; you get the new manager boost in the last match. What happens when they play away from home against a quality side? They probably lose.
Bet 2: Everton Over 3.5 corners (-150)
It isn't easy to know precisely how Everton will start this match. However, they may very well be in a losing position in this game. They are in a relegation battle and need at least a point. Corners should be a good move here. They need four to cash, it's not a sexy number, but it's one that should hit.
Newcastle had their great run halted with a 4-1 loss to Bournemouth last time out. Before that, they had won nine straight matches across all competitions. They should win against Southampton, but it's hard to imagine they keep a clean sheet. Both teams to score is hitting at a 75% clip on the road. If you like Newcastle, you could get a better price on them to win by paring in the Southampton goal.
Bet 2: Alexander Isak First Goal Scorer (+245)
In Newcastle's run, Isak scored 10 goals, scoring the first goal in five of those matches. If you find a playable price, I also like him to score in the first half.
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Wolves have conceded three goals in three straight contests. Now, they are hosting Arsenal in a match that Arsenal has historically dominated. I have this one at 2-0 and like the value on the alt spread.
Bet 2: Matheus Cunha 3+ shots (+150)
Wolves likely won't take a ton of shots in this match. However, there's some rumor of Arsenal flirting with Cunha in the transfer window. What a chance to make a good impression on your future team. Cunha is averaging three shots per game. He's at home, and they likely will be playing from a losing position.
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: Saturday 10:00 AM ET
Bet 1: Nottingham Forest +0.5 (-125)
This match is a clash of styles, and neither team wants to lose. Forest are on a nine-match unbeaten streak. This is a team worthy of a top-six spot this season. I think they get something out of this game.
Bet 2: Bournemouth -1.5 1 Half Corner Handicap (+137)
Forest have only won 27% of the first-half corner spreads this season. They only have 33.9% of possession away from home. You flip to the other side of the ball, and Bournemouth are only at 50% at home this season, but their possession is around 45.8%. Forest will let Bournemouth have the bulk of possession early on. It's up to Bournemouth to capitalize.
This game has a total of 3.5, and we should see both teams find the back of the net. Cole Palmer played in the Manchester City academy, so I will bet on him to score against City. +160 is an excellent price for Chelsea's leading scorer to find the back of the net.
Bet 2: Manchester City Moneyline (+105)
Manchester City are not the same team that others used to fear. However, they should have their way against a really poor defensive side in Chelsea. At +105, there is a great deal of value on backing Manchester City to win at home.
It feels like we are waiting on Son to have this goal explosion where he goes on a run and scores in like five games straight. It might have started. He has scored three goals in three matches. Spurs will be without Dominic Solanke and are playing against a Leicester City team who are conceding 2.7 goals per road match.
Bet 2: Tottenham -1.5 1 Half Corner Spread (-139)
Tottenham need to win this match. They will come out swinging and firing away. They are averaging 12.27 shots per contest. This is a number I am comfortable with.
Brentford give up a league-high 18.73 shots per 90 minutes. Mateta's number is usually around 1.5, but I think at 2.5, he should be worth consideration. Palace will shoot, and Mateta has been on fire with four goals in three games. I expect Eberechi Eze and Mateta to be the aggressors in this contest.
Bet 2: Crystal Palace Moneyline (+105)
It's difficult to get excited about betting on sides and totals in this match. If I had to pick a side, it's Crystal Palace. They are on a two-match winning streak and have won three of their last four matches.
I'm not a massive fan of betting on Aston Villa corner handicaps unless they are losing. However, all signs point to first-half dominance. The Hammers have conceded many shots since Graham Potter took over at West Ham. Yes, it helps that they have scored early, but I would like this to be one way to get traffic early.
Bet 2: Aston Villa -1 (-115)
Despite picking up a win in his first home match as manager of West Ham, I'm not a believer in Potter. They lost to Villa in the cup match. They beat Fulham 3-2 but had an xG of just 0.95. They scored three goals on four shots. They then lost to Crystal Palace 2-0 while only creating an xG of 0.13.
Manchester United don't defend. They have conceded 32 goals this season, which is ninth most in the league. They have conceded 14 goals in their last six matches. They still have the attack to score and rescue them late in matches. Fulham can score and concede with the best of them too.
Bet 2: First Half Over 1 Goal (-110)
There has been at least one goal scored in 91% of the first halves played at Craven Cottage.