This report presents an overview of climate-related changes observed in Syria during the 2024-2025 wet season, with a specific focus on rainfall and vegetation dynamics. Using Earth observation data, it highlights the spatial and temporal shifts in rainfall patterns and vegetation health, with particular emphasis on agricultural stability zones -- areas most sensitive to fluctuations in seasonal rainfall. The objective is to assess the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity and provide evidence-based insights for humanitarian planning and food security monitoring.
To analyze vegetation cover, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite imagery at ~222-meter spatial resolution. NDVI is a key remote sensing indicator used to monitor plant health and greenness. It ranges from -1 to +1, where higher values indicate denser and healthier vegetation. This report compares the April 2025 NDVI with the 25-year long-term April average (2000-2024) to assess anomalies in vegetation cover.
Rainfall data was sourced from CHIRPS v3.0 (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) at ~5 km resolution. The report includes maps of total rainfall between November 2024 and April 2025, compares it with the long-term seasonal average, and visualizes anomalies at both the pixel and governorate levels. CHIRPS is widely used in drought monitoring due to its integration of satellite and ground-based observations.
Together, NDVI and rainfall anomalies offer a comprehensive understanding of Syria's climate-related stress during this season. Key findings show that while total rainfall was below average in many areas, its timing and distribution were particularly unfavorable for rain-fed agriculture. Late-season rains and dry mid-season months resulted in reduced vegetation growth, especially in northeastern Syria, including Al-Hasakeh Governorate, a major wheat-producing area.
This report is intended to inform stakeholders involved in early warning systems, agricultural planning, humanitarian coordination, and climate resilience efforts in Syria.