Are you prepared for up to 57 more extreme heat days per year? We're already getting about 20 extra. This weekend included.
It's October. And parts of Australia are already on the way to 45C.
A wave of hot air is moving out from WA's Pilbara and into South Australia. And the last time anywhere in Australia reached those temperatures in October was in 2014 and 2004. The spillover effect is already being felt in Sydney. Its 5C above-average temperatures would be considered normal ... for January.
This coming Wednesday the mercury is tipped to hit 38C in the city's west, and 34C in the city -- impacting millions.
It's not just Australia's experience.
Between May 2024 and May 2025, 4 billion people had to contend with at least 30 more days of extreme heat than usual.
"Extreme" is defined as being hotter than 90 per cent of recorded temperatures over the past 0 years in a given region on a given day. Globally, the average came out at about 11.
"This is not a surprise or an accident - the causes are well known and the impacts are devastating," a report from World Weather Attribution and Climate Central (US) states.
They've been running the numbers. Their research is now undergoing scientific review.
It says a world without spring and autumn is almost upon us.
An extra 30 days of unnatural heat will be common by the end of the century, the report argues. In some places, that number will be as high as 57.
But this is not as bad as it could have been.
"There will be pain and suffering because of climate change," says Climate Central Vice President Kristina Dahl. "But if you look at this difference between 4C of warming and 2.6C of warming, that reflects the last 10 years and the ambitions that people have put forth. And to me, that's encouraging."
The study takes into account the failure of global politics to meet Paris Agreement reductions in thermal blanket gases. Its 1.5C warming goal is widely regarded as having been missed. Now many argue the best-case is looking to be about 2.5C.
The heat is on
Heat waves are getting hotter.
In a few decades, you could expect to add 1.7C to what would otherwise have been a 45C October weekend.
But, depending on where you live, it could be better. Or worse.
The World Weather Attribution and Climate Central (US) report argues that how much extra heat a place experiences can be influenced by its exposure to hot air carried in by the sea.
"Although floods and cyclones often dominate headlines, heat is arguably the deadliest extreme event, with thousands of extreme heat-related deaths reported each year and many more that go unreported or unrecognised as linked to heat," it argues.
The report points to Hawaii and Florida as the US states experiencing the most significant increase in superhot days. Inland Idaho will record the least.
Climate modelling for Australia shows northern Queensland and WA, and most of the NT, as being the most affected. Monsoonal heat is coming south.
"Unless global warming is dramatically curbed, Northern Australia is unlikely to prosper in the second half of this century - and grandiose plans to turn the region into a food bowl will turn to dust," warns CQUniversity environmental geographer, Adjunct Professor Steve Turton.
Last month's National Climate Risk Assessment report release found fire, flood, drought and heat were already affecting the national economy and lifestyles.
It warned the country needed to prepare for worse to come.
"Much media attention focused on the effects in the continent's south, where most Australians live. But the assessment found Northern Australia will be hardest hit on many fronts, including extreme heat," Turton notes.
Driving our future
For every 1C of extra heat, the atmosphere can hold an extra 7 per cent moisture (if it's available).
That's why summer can bring thunderstorms.
But 2.5C global warming could turn spring shows into a torrent.
And that, says University of Southern Queensland public works expert Hannah Seligman, strikes close to Australia's heart.
Its road network.
"Short term, this means more emergency repairs and disruption. Longer term, it means faster deterioration, higher costs and shorter road lifespans," Seligman writes for The Conversation.
The National Climate Action Plan calls for upgrading the transport network in anticipation of more frequent, more intense weather events. But it concedes costs will have to limit this to arterial highways.
But Seligman says disaster response should become a process for emergency upgrades.
"It's long been common to rebuild roads exactly as they were before a disaster. But this means they're vulnerable to the next disaster, which may be even bigger," she warns.
The World Weather Attribution and Climate Central (US) report points to how even a slight increase in average temperature shifts the bell-curve deep into the red.
More heat means:
More and stronger cyclones.
More extreme flash floods.
More frequent droughts.
More bushfires.
Exactly how much more depends on where you live. And how high temperatures go.
"Climate change is already hitting Australian roads hard. If nothing is done, the damage will only intensify. Traditional methods will stop working."