The Star's Justin Spears and Michael Lev recap Arizona's 41-17 win over Baylor and the most important storylines from the Wildcats' home finale at Casino Del Sol Stadium. (Video by Justin Spears / Arizona Daily Star)
What factors will determine the winner of the 99th Territorial Cup football game between Arizona and Arizona State?
For our final "Cats Stats" of the regular season, we'll dig into nine sets of figures that could decide the outcome of Friday night's matchup in Tempe. It's a veritable feast of numerical nuggets. Enjoy.
1. Road warrior
One of the oddities of UA quarterback Noah Fifita's bounce-back season is that he's been a more effective passer on the road.
In four games played outside of Tucson, Fifita has completed 72.6% of his passes while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and posting a 163.0 efficiency rating. At home, those numbers are 59.4%, 7.6 and 144.81.
Offensive coordinator Seth Doege attributed that disparity to Fifita being an "ultimate competitor" -- rising to the moment when the conditions are the hardest.
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Fifita has played at Mountain America Stadium one time, in 2023. All he did that day was set the UA record with 527 passing yards.
2. Sims vs. Leavitt
The ASU offense changed when quarterback Sam Leavitt suffered a season-ending injury.
Since journeyman Jeff Sims became the full-time starter, the Sun Devils have become a more run-oriented team.
In Leavitt's seven starts, ASU averaged 37.7 rushing attempts and 35.9 passing attempts per game. (In this instance, we are not flipping sacks and scrambles to the passing column.) In Sims' four starts, those numbers have been 42.5 and 28.8. It's even more stark over the past three games: 43.3 vs. 26.0.
Kenny Dillingham has altered his offense to cater to Sims' strengths, one of which is running the ball. Sims has averaged 15 designed runs during his four starts, according to Pro Football Focus. Leavitt averaged four.
Given Sims' effectiveness as a runner (423 yards, 5.1 yards per carry) and Arizona's past trouble against running quarterbacks (see BYU, Houston), it stands to reason that the QB run game will be a major part of ASU's game plan.
3. Rush to judgment
UA defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales joked -- we think -- that ASU would "run it a thousand times" against his defense because "we stink at stopping the run."
Don't be surprised if Dillingham tests that theory.
The Sun Devils rank third in the Big 12 in rushing at 197 yards per game. They've topped 200 yards six times -- including 355 last week at Colorado -- and have a 5-1 record in those games.
Tailback Raleek Brown ranks second in the conference in rushing (1,078 yards) and has the highest average per carry (6.2) among the top four.
Arizona, meanwhile, ranks eighth in the Big 12 in run defense (149.8 ypg) -- 11th if you isolate conference games (170.0).
The Wildcats have allowed 170-plus rushing yards in five of their past six games. They have a 3-2 record in those contests, with the losses coming against BYU and Houston. Those are the only two teams to go over 200 yards vs. Arizona in 2025.
4. Reeling in Raleek
Brown is a home run hitter. He ranks second in the Big 12 with 30 rushing plays of 10-plus yards, per CFBStats.com. He's tied for first with 11 rushes of 20-plus yards.
Correspondingly, ASU ranks second and third, respectively, in those categories.
While stopping the run might be viewed as Arizona's biggest defensive "weakness," the Wildcats have done a good job of limiting chunk plays. They've allowed the sixth-fewest runs of 10-plus yards (44) and are tied for the third-fewest runs allowed of 20-plus yards (10).
5. Back and fourth
If the game comes down to the fourth quarter, who will have the edge?
Arizona has been exceptionally stingy in the final period this season, limiting opponents to 36 points. In fact, opponent point totals have descended every quarter, going from 59 to 51 to 48 to 36.
Meanwhile, the fourth quarter is when ASU's offense shines the most. The Sun Devils have scored more points (88) in the fourth period than any other, including 21 last week to pull away for a 42-17 victory in Boulder.
ASU has found a way to win in the fourth quarter way more often than not over the past two seasons, posting an 11-3 record in one-score games.
6. Sack exchange
If the Territorial Cup combatants have a shared weakness, it's protecting the quarterback.
Arizona has allowed the second-most sacks in the Big 12 (28). ASU has surrendered the third most (27).
The Sun Devils have been much better at sacking opposing quarterbacks, ranking second with 31. The Wildcats are tied for 10th with 21 sacks -- although Gonzales would tell you that QB pressure has led directly to their league-high 16 interceptions.
The challenge to get to the quarterback is greater with Sims behind center. He's slightly harder to sack than Leavitt.
Sims has a 19.2% pressure-to-sack rate, per PFF. Leavitt's is 23%, fourth highest in the Big 12 (minimum 116 dropbacks).
Sims also gets the ball out slightly faster with an average time to throw of 2.77 seconds vs. Leavitt's 2.94.
7. In the margins
That interception total has helped Arizona rank second in the Big 12 and tied for fifth nationally with a plus-12 turnover margin. The Wildcats are tied for sixth in the country with 23 takeaways.
As you'd expect, there's a correlation between turnover margin and overall success.
Arizona is plus-12 in its eight wins, while it has broken even in its three losses.
ASU is even for the season. The Sun Devils are plus-3 in wins, minus-3 in losses. The former has been dragged down by ASU's past two road games, against Iowa State and Colorado, in which the Sun Devils were a combined minus-5 -- yet won both times.
No stat has been more consequential in recent Territorial Cups. The winner of the turnover battle has won the game seven straight times. The last time it didn't go that way was 2017, when many strange developments led to a 42-30 ASU victory.
8. (Third) down and out
Both Arizona and ASU are pretty good at stopping opponents on third down -- and just OK (or worse) at converting them when they have the ball.
The Sun Devils rank fourth in the Big 12 in third-down defense at 34.19% -- and the Wildcats are right behind them at 34.76%.
ASU is third worst in third-down offense at 33.94%; Arizona ranks eighth at 38.73%.
Like turnovers, there's a clear correlation between third-down success and team success.
On both sides of the ball, Arizona and ASU have a disparity of 10% or greater in wins vs. losses. The biggest gap can be found with the Wildcats' third-down defense.
In wins, Arizona has limited opponents to a 28.93% conversion rate. In losses, that number spikes to 51.16%.
9. Red zone or dead zone?
Finally, we arrive at the red zone, where touchdowns could be hard to come by.
Arizona (12th) and ASU (tied for 14th) both rank in the bottom five of the Big 12 in red-zone TD percentage. Meanwhile, they both rank in the top half of the league in preventing opponents from scoring touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. (The Sun Devils rank sixth, while the Wildcats are eighth.)
It hasn't mattered that much whether Arizona and ASU convert their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. There's barely any difference in TD rate for the Wildcats in wins (56.76%) vs. losses (54.55%). The gap is a little bigger for the Sun Devils -- 51.52% vs. 44.44% -- but nowhere near the disparity for both when it comes to stopping the other team.
In wins, ASU has limited the opposition to a 50% TD rate in the red zone. In losses, that figure jumps to 70%.
Arizona has held opponents to a 44.44% TD rate in wins. In losses? Try 76.92%.
In a game with a 1.5-point spread, the difference very well could be who ends up kicking field goals inside the 20.
Contact sports reporter/columnist Michael Lev at mlev@tucson.com. On X (Twitter): @michaeljlev. On Bluesky: @michaeljlev.bsky.social
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