After a long, drawn-out saga that featured multiple opt-outs and a lot of snide remarks from fans who fell on different sides of the equation, Shota Imanaga is officially returning to the Chicago Cubs in 2026. He has accepted the qualifying offer, which amounts to a one-year, $22.05 million deal.
It's an odd conclusion to the whole situation, considering the Cubs passed on his three-year club option (at a lower annual salary) and Imanaga passed on a one-year option (worth $15 million) before both sides effectively agreed to this new arrangement.
Considering how it appeared how Imanaga's tenure had ended -- with him watching from the sidelines on full rest in Game 5 of the NLDS -- it's fascinating to see him willingly return to a team that seemingly soured on him during the second half of 2025.
The Cubs, for their part, were always going to hand Imanaga a QO. Had he declined, they would have gotten draft-pick compensation. Instead, they've converted his three-year deal into a one-year contract, which aligns perfectly with their pre-lockout plans.
The issue isn't that Imanaga is coming back or that there's bound to be some awkwardness in the relationship. The mistake was in offering Imanaga a qualifying offer in the first place.
It's hard to call Imanaga's first two seasons with the Cubs anything but a resounding success. Since coming stateside, the Japanese southpaw has authored a 3.28 ERA in 318.0 innings. He's also got a 4.24 FIP, 3.75 xERA, 1.01 WHIP, 23.1 percent strikeout rate, and 4.3 percent walk rate to show for his efforts.
However, his well-documented stretch-run struggles are hard to ignore, including the fact that he allowed multiple home runs in five of his final six regular season starts. That led to an ugly performance in Game 2 of the NLDS, when the Milwaukee Brewers got to him for two more homers in less than three frames of work.
The Cubs' decision to decline Imanaga's relatively affordable three-year option was a loud statement that they didn't believe in his future. Lacking overpowering stuff, Imanaga is bound to struggle when he fails to locate his fastball as he did in the second half.
Having him for just 2026 is likely to mitigate some of those concerns; remember, he had a 2.65 ERA prior to the All-Star break this past season. Still, the Cubs are now down an additional $22 million in payroll space for a pitcher who might not be able to keep the ball in the park.
Imanaga's short-term presence on the roster shouldn't decimate any long-term plans. But, for a Cubs team that has been approaching the impending MLB lockout with a significant amount of caution, having roughly $52 million in space below the first luxury tax threshold is a significantly lower mark than the ~$75 million it was before Imanaga accepted the QO.
Time will tell if the southpaw can get back to the form he showed in 2024 and the first half of 2025. The Cubs, however, must continue to attempt to fill their top-of-the-rotation needs with far less resources to do so.