Only one in five suburbs across Australian capitals have median house prices that can be considered affordable for the average Aussie.
Affordable suburbs across Australia are disappearing at breakneck speed, collapsing to just one in five still within reach of the average househunter - the sharpest deterioration in years.
And in a shock twist, Sydney now has more affordable unit suburbs than Brisbane and Hobart, flipping long-held assumptions about the nation's most expensive city and the comparative affordability of other capitals.
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The PRD Smart Moves: Capital City Edition (2nd Half 2025), released Wednesday, shows affordability has deteriorated almost everywhere, with some capitals seeing the number of affordable suburbs halve since the first half of the year despite three cash rate cuts.
Houses are now almost out of reach in major capitals, with a brutal 7.8 per cent of Sydney suburbs affordable, 22pc in Brisbane, 25.2pc in Melbourne and 34.7pc in Hobart.
This makes Brisbane now the second-least affordable capital for houses, overtaking Melbourne for the first time, and making units the only lifeline for many homebuyers.
PRD chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo warned even the unit figures are declining fast,
with just over a third of suburbs affordable in Sydney (36.9pc), Brisbane (36.7pc) and Melbourne (36.2pc).
Hobart was a shocker with just 28.2pc of unit suburbs considered affordable now, though it still holds the highest proportion of affordable house suburbs.
Despite the shrinking affordability, PRD identified a shortlist of suburbs that still tick the key boxes for affordability, decent rental yields, liveability, and new supply coming in 2025.
In Brisbane, Slacks Creek topped the list for house with a median of $760,000, 2.9pc rental yield, and 22 new supply incoming, while Logan Central was best for units at a mid-range price of $425,000, a solid 5pc yield, and 21 new supply.
Sydney's top affordable suburb was Merrylands where the house median is $1.31m, 2.9pc yield, and a massive 630 new supply incoming. Units were led by Parramatta where the median is $600,000, strong 6.1pc yield, and a whopping 1712 new supply pipeline.
Melbourne's best for average buyers hunting affordable and liveable suburbs was St Albans on a mid price of $685,000, 3.7pc yield, and 155 new supply, while Box Hill led units on a $540,000 median, 5.7pc yield, and 379 new supply.
Hobart's best pick for houses was Warrane on a median of $513,500, 4.3pc yield, with 10 in new supply, while units were led by New Town at $457,500, 5.2pc yield, with 44 new supply.
Dr Mardiasmo said the suburbs were the last remaining pockets where buyers can still find value as well as lifestyle amenities and development indicators that signal long-term growth.
She warned buyers were being pushed further out beyond the 20km radius traditionally used for the report, especially in cities like Brisbane.
"They're significantly harder to find," she said, with the report having to drop their unemployment rate criteria from the methodology to retain suburbs with enough housing stock planned for 2025.
Dr Mardiasmo said the Reserve Bank was expected to keep rates on hold until at least mid-2026, which may push some buyers into "wait-and-see mode".
"But that pause could give ready buyers a major opening over summer," she said, as seller confidence increases and more stock flows onto the market.