Snow fans in northern New Jersey got a pre-winter treat back in November, when a storm system dumped a half-foot of snow in Morris County and as much as 20 inches of snow on parts of Sussex County.
Since then, big snowstorms haven't materialized in most areas of the state, aside from the Monday storm that dropped 6 to 8 inches of snow in far southern New Jersey.
If you're rooting for more storms like that across the Garden State this winter, local forecaster Steven DiMartino has some good news.
The atmospheric pattern that is shaping up now is opening the door to potential snowstorms in our region of the country during the latter half of January and into early February, DiMartino said.
"I am not guaranteeing winter storms," DiMartino said in a video forecast looking ahead to the next several weeks. "I'm just saying that if you think you could cancel winter and think it's going to be cold and dry for the rest of the winter, or we start losing our cold air altogether, the data says wrong."
"We basically have support here for at least an active weather pattern with cold air present -- and plenty of opportunity" for snowstorms, he added.
DiMartino, a meteorologist who heads the private NY NJ PA Weather consulting company, based in Monmouth County, says computer guidance models and projections from the national Climate Prediction Center support the likelihood that cold air will continue pushing from the polar vortex near the North Pole into many regions of the U.S. in the coming weeks.
As of now, we are stuck in an atmospheric pattern that has allowed frigid air -- one of the key ingredients for snowstorms -- to seep into the New Jersey region.
But a strong upper-level low pressure system circulating around Quebec has suppressed the moisture from big winter storms from impacting the Garden State and other eastern states.
DiMartino says he expects the upper-level low to shift from Quebec, in eastern Canada, to the Hudson Bay region in east-central Canada during the next 15 days.
That shift, he says, could open the door for storm systems to move along the subtropical jet stream in the southern U.S. and curve north towards the Mid-Atlantic region.
"There is potential here," he said. "Winter is not canceled in any way, shape or form."
The Climate Prediction Center is projecting colder than average temperatures are likely to remain in New Jersey through the end of January, with above-normal chances of precipitation during that timeframe.
For now, "no major winter storms are expected" during the next 10 days, DiMartino noted.
After that, the pattern should shift and more opportunities for snow in our region could arise.