The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has praised Belize for its "strong recovery" following the COVID-19 pandemic, noting improvements in social outcomes and financial stability.
In a statement following its Article IV Consultation for Belize, the IMF highlighted that after a 30.6 per cent expansion between 2021 and 2023, the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 8.1 per cent last year, fueled by positive developments in tourism, trade, and transport. Inflation also moderated, slowing to 1 per cent in May 2025 from 4 per cent a year earlier.
The IMF credited the country's strong nominal growth, combined with expenditure control and a sharp recovery in government revenues, for improving the primary balance to 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2024. Public debt also fell sharply to 61.1 per cent of GDP from a peak of 103.3 per cent in 2020, aided by a debt-for-marine protection swap and a negotiated discount on Petrocaribe debt.
Looking ahead, real GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 1.5 per cent in 2025, largely due to a slowdown in tourism and weak agricultural performance, before gradually converging to its potential of about 2 per cent over the medium term unless hotel and flight capacity is expanded.
IMF executive directors warned of downside risks from Belize's high exposure to external shocks and global uncertainty. They stressed the need to reduce public debt and accelerate reforms to unlock potential growth and build resilience to natural disasters.
"As a small developing country with capacity constraints, tailored policy advice and technical assistance will remain critical to support implementation in Belize," the IMF said. Officials welcomed Belize's commitment to building buffers against future shocks, including reducing public debt to below 50 per cent of GDP. They recommended enhanced revenue mobilisation and reprioritisation of expenditures, including through pension reform, to free resources for targeted social programs, crime prevention, and infrastructure development.
The IMF also called for the establishment of a medium-term fiscal framework with clear targets to enhance credibility and support an effective Fiscal Responsibility Law. Officials encouraged continued accumulation of reserves to strengthen the currency peg, further fiscal consolidation, structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, and reductions in central bank holdings of government securities.
The statement highlighted the decline in systemic risks and urged continued vigilance to maintain financial stability, including expedited implementation of the Deposit Insurance Act. Improving private sector access to financing was also identified as a priority, with the IMF noting progress in strengthening Belize's anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) framework while calling for continued efforts to address remaining gaps.