Bet the over on Christian McCaffrey's receiving yards total against the Panthers on Monday night. / Sean Thomas-Imagn Images
We're one week away from Thanksgiving, which means we're about to enter the final stretch of the 2025 NFL season. The bad news is football will be over before we know it, but the good news is we have plenty of data to dig into to find some valuable player props for this weekend's action.
As I do every week, I'm going to break down my top 10 prop bets for the upcoming slate of games, including Christian McCaffrey to have a big performance against his former team on Monday Night Football.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
No matter what other people say, I'm still a believer in Jordan Love, and I'm confident he's going to hit his stride in the final stretch of the season. Despite the slow past few weeks, he still ranks third amongst all quarterbacks in expected points added plus completion percentage over expected. Now, he gets to face a Vikings defense that ranks 21st in opponent yards per pass attempt, allowing 7.1 yards per throw. It's time to buy in on the Packers' quarterback.
The Chiefs have allowed the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season, with five total touchdowns being scored by opposing quarterbacks. That should be music to the ears of Daniel Jones, who's in the midst of his best season as a rusher, already scoring five touchdowns with his legs. He's a great dark horse bet to find the end zone on Sunday.
The Saints currently rank in the top 10 in every rush defense category, including allowing just 4.0 yards per carry. With Michael Penix Jr. done for the season with an ACL injury and Drake London sidelined for at least this game, the Saints are going to be able to load the box to make sure they stop the run. That's going to lead to tough sledding for Bijan Robinson, who is the Falcons' final offensive weapon left standing.
Saquon Barkley is another great buy-low candidate ahead of the Eagles' Week 12 game against the Cowboys. The Dallas defense has been bad this season, including ranking 29th in opponent rush EPA and last in opponent rush success rate. There's no denying Barkley has had a less-than-stellar season in 2025, but he could be set up for a breakout performance on Sunday.
The Bengals have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends amongst all defenses this season. Seven different tight ends have already had 40+ yard performances against them, which should lead to Hunter Henry of the Patriots putting up big numbers on Sunday. Henry is averaging 38.4 yards per game, so it's not a big ask for him to go over that.
Lamar Jackson hasn't quite been the same since returning from injury three weeks ago. In the three games since his return, he has combined for just 60 yards on the ground. He also ran just four times last week against the Browns, which could be a sign that his injury is bothering him more than he's letting on. If that's the case, his rushing yards total of 34.5 is too high for Sunday's game against the Jets.
I love betting on a kicker to go over their points total when they're on a team that struggles in the red zone and is facing a strong red zone defense. That's exactly the situation we have this weekend with Chase McLaughlin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs rank 25th in the NFL in red zone touchdown scoring percentage, scoring a touchdown on just 51.72% of red zone trips. Now, they face an elite Rams defense that allows teams to score a touchdown on just 43.75% of red zone trips against them, the second-best mark in the league. All of that will hopefully lead to the Bucs' kicker, McLaughlin, having a busy day.
J.J. McCarthy has been pressured on 28% of his dropbacks, which is the highest percentage amongst all NFL quarterbacks this season. Now, he's set to take on the Green Bay Packers' vicious pass rush. You can bet on Micah Parsons to record a sack at almost -200 odds, or you can bet on Rashan Gary, who already has 7.5 sacks this season, just 0.5 fewer sacks than Parsons, to record another sack at +106 odds. That seems like a great bet to place.
The Detroit Lions' rushing attack has a dream matchup ahead of them against the New York Giants. The Giants have allowed the most yards per carry this season at 5.5 yards per rush, while also allowing the most carries of 20+ yards with 12. That's going to set up Jahmyr Gibbs to have a big game and hopefully rip off at least one explosive run.
You might be surprised to find out that Christian McCaffrey has been significantly more effective catching the ball out of the backfield this season than he has been running the football. In fact, he's averaging 66.5 receiving yards per game compared to 64.3 rushing yards per game. Despite that, his receiving yards total is set at just 42.5 when he takes on his former team on Monday Night Football. It seems like the betting market has yet to figure out just how many receiving yards he's been racking up every week. I'll bet on him to reach at least 43 receiving yards on Monday.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.