Days after the Taliban invaded Kabul, in August 2021, the mood in Islamabad was celebratory, with the then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan praising the Afghan group for breaking the chains of slavery. Photographs of visibly delighted Pakistani diplomats stationed in Kabul were taken.
India, by contrast, appeared out in the cold, with the return of the Taliban seen as a strategic victory for Islamabad, widely seen as having helped the group return to power.
Four years later
Four years after the tectonic events, it is now India which seems to have the upper hand. Indeed, India and the Taliban-led government hope to open a new chapter in their bilateral relations, with New Delhi rolling out the red carpet for the Taliban regime's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, even as deadly clashes took place along the Durand Line, a new low for Afghan-Pakistani relations.
India's decision to welcome Muttaqi despite the Taliban regime's pariah status reflects an intransigent realpolitik driven by its own strategic imperatives. Earlier, New Delhi visibly feared that the Taliban would move closer to Pakistan and its deep state, which is behind repeated terrorist attacks on Indian soil.
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So far, only Russia has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under Taliban 2.0 rule, although other countries, including India, have gradually moved closer.
Recognize the Taliban
Having avoided Taliban 1.0 when it controlled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, India has also stepped up its efforts after initially moving away from a regime seen as retrograde, particularly in the context of women's rights.
India's decision to welcome Muttaqi despite the Taliban regime's pariah status reflects an intransigent realpolitik driven by its own strategic imperatives.
This was clearly evident when no female journalists were invited to Muttaqi's first press conference, leading to uproar and questions about whether India welcomes a leader belonging to a conservative regime that tramples women's rights. While Muttaqi sought to defend the Taliban government on this front during his second press conference, to which female journalists were invited, his responses were unconvincing.
India would have done well to inform the visiting ministers that such discrimination created bad optics instead of trying to distance itself from the initial press meet by pretending not to be involved in it. By committing to the Taliban 2.0 project, New Delhi must be mindful of India's image in the world.
China-Pakistan axis
India's current efforts also mean renewed efforts to ensure that it does not cede strategic space to China in Afghanistan, where Beijing has already sent an ambassador. It must also keep a watchful eye on the Sino-Pakistani axis in the region.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in Kabul last month, assuring the Taliban that they were their loyal friends.
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Without recognizing the regime, Muttaqi's visit to India marks a concerted effort by both sides to normalize bilateral relations. The decision to transform India's technical mission in Kabul (opening in 2022 into a full-fledged embassy) is a step in this direction.
Diplomatic capital
Seen as a vital part of its broader neighborhood, India invested a lot of diplomatic capital to prevent Pakistan from exerting greater influence in Afghanistan after the ouster of the Taliban in 2001. By engaging with the Taliban regime and now welcoming its foreign minister, New Delhi hopes to regain the strategic space it has seen eroded in Afghanistan over the past four years.
India would have done well to inform Muttaqi officials that gender discrimination gives a bad image, rather than trying to distance itself from the first press meet without female journalists.
Pakistan, which hoped that the Taliban regime would prove to be a docile friend and ally, sees its relations with its neighbor at an all-time low. There is a huge gap between the two camps. Even the visit of Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar last April did little to restore relations.
Amid tensions in Afghan-Pakistani relations, New Delhi took a phased approach by first sending Foreign Minister Vikram Misri to meet Muttaqi in Dubai last January. This was followed by a telephonic conversation between Foreign Minister S Jaishankar Muttaqi in May.
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Growing bilateral ties
New Delhi also continued to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, in line with its policy of working for the benefit of the Afghan people and presenting itself as a reliable partner willing to meet their development needs.
The Taliban regimes reiterated assurances to New Delhi that they would be attentive to their security interests and their condemnation of the Pahalgam terror attack, which India accuses Pakistan of carrying out, also helped the two sides build bridges.
The joint statement issued after the Jaishankar-Muttaqi meeting on October 11 also saw the Taliban pledging not to allow the use of Afghan territory by any individual or group against India. What added fuel to the fire was Kabul's endorsement of India's sovereignty over Jammu and Kashmir, which predictably angered Islamabad.
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Mutual interests
Amid its strained relations with Islamabad, the Taliban regime is looking for friends and allies who can help the country revive its economy and move forward on the path of development. India considers India a reliable partner that has helped build infrastructure projects including the Salma Dam and the Parliament building, besides providing humanitarian assistance whenever necessary.
Kabul would also like Indian companies to explore opportunities in sectors such as connectivity, energy, agriculture, infrastructure and minerals. Security concerns and poor physical connectivity, however, could hamper Indian private sector investments in Afghanistan. An India-Afghanistan air cargo corridor was announced during Muttaqi's visit, although it could prove a costly option for trade.
With its vast reserves of essential minerals, the Taliban's invitation to India to explore mining will also put India in direct competition with China, which is also interested in this crucial sector. Pakistan, too, will be waiting in the wings, eager to upset India at any moment. India has its work cut out for it and cannot afford to relax.
(The Fed seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. Any information, ideas or opinions contained in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Fed.)
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