The Atlantic hurricane season is once again drawing focus as a persistent tropical wave has been officially designated Invest 98-L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The system, currently a large area of showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, is being closely monitored for significant development next week as it moves into the Caribbean Sea.
Invest 98-L: Fast Westward Motion Followed by Favorable Conditions
As of the latest advisory, Invest 98-L is moving swiftly westward at a quick clip of 20 to 25 mph. This rapid motion is expected to initially limit its ability to organize, keeping the near-term threat low.
Short-Term Outlook (Next 48 Hours):
* Location: Approaching and moving across the Windward Islands.
* Impact: Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the Windward and Leeward Islands throughout Sunday and into Monday morning, regardless of whether the system officially develops.
* Formation Chance: A low 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation.
Long-Term Outlook (Next Seven Days):
Forecasters are increasingly concerned about the system's potential to strengthen once it reaches the central Caribbean. The NHC has placed the seven-day development chance at a high 60%.
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As the disturbance moves into the central Caribbean during the middle portion of next week, its forward speed is expected to slow down, and environmental conditions -- such as warm waters and lower wind shear -- are anticipated to become much more conducive for development.
A tropical depression, or possibly the next named storm of the season (which would be Melissa), could form over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter part of the week.
Another System Being Watched Off the U.S. Northeast Coast
In addition to Invest 98-L, the NHC is also monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure developing well off the coast of the Northeast United States.
This system is expected to move southeastward and then turn northeastward over the weekend. There is a very slight chance -- 10% through the next seven days -- that some subtropical or tropical development could occur while it moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of Bermuda. However, the probability for this system is much lower and the threat to land is minimal.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. Residents, especially those in the Caribbean, are advised to stay vigilant and monitor the progress of Invest 98-L closely as it enters an area highly favored for tropical development next week.
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