Melissa is currently moving at a slow pace -- around 3 mph -- through the Caribbean, a factor that significantly raises the threat level. As it crawls towards Jamaica and the southern parts of Haiti, the storm's rainfall is expected to be a major concern, with up to 30 inches of rain forecasted in some areas. Localized rain totals could even reach 40 inches. This heavy rainfall, combined with tropical humidity, is expected to trigger severe flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous regions of Haiti and Jamaica.
The island nation of Jamaica is expected to bear the brunt of the storm's impact. The slow-moving nature of the hurricane could cause massive flooding and prolonged rainfall, leaving Kingston and other regions exposed to the risk of dangerous flooding, especially in areas like Sandy Gully, a waterway that has been clogged with debris. As Melissa inches closer, winds are likely to increase, reaching hurricane strength by Sunday night or early Monday.
In Haiti, the situation is similarly dire. The Haitian Civil Protection Agency has already reported casualties due to landslides and flooding caused by the storm's outer rainbands. The heavy downpours that have already impacted Haiti are expected to intensify, causing more casualties and extensive damage to roads and infrastructure. The NHC has urged residents of both countries to prepare immediately for potential destruction.
Forecasts indicate that Melissa's rapid intensification could lead to a Category 5 hurricane by Monday. This would make the storm not only highly dangerous but also potentially record-breaking in the region. Category 5 hurricanes are the most destructive on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds exceeding 157 mph. As Jamaica braces for this possibility, authorities have implemented emergency protocols, including halting elective surgeries at hospitals and preparing for widespread power outages.
Melissa's explosive intensification can be traced to several factors. The Caribbean Sea is notably warm, providing the storm with plenty of fuel to strengthen. Additionally, the lack of cooler waters beneath the surface means that the storm can continue feeding off the heat, leading to stronger winds and storm surges. Global warming has been linked to more frequent instances of rapid intensification, a concerning trend that could be seen more often in the coming years as ocean temperatures continue to rise.