Iowa (6-3) suffered a 20-19 comeback loss to in-state rival Iowa State in Week 2, then beat @Minnesota 31-14 with a 99% win expectancy before getting throttled by @Ohio State. Since then, the Hawkeyes have won three out of four Big Ten contests with home victories over Washington, Northwestern and Wisconsin, with a loss at Michigan State tossed in. HC Kirk Ferentz is fielding another formidable defense that ranks 5th in SP+ and 10th in EPA/play. They've made real strides on the offensive side of the ball, specifically in the run game where potential All-American RB Kaleb Johnson has led Iowa to 6.1 yards per non-QB rush (14th in FBS) while ranking first nationally with a 13.7% explosive run rate.
UCLA (3-5) experienced a rather rude introduction to the Big Ten, losing their first four conference games against Indiana, Oregon, @ Penn State and Minnesota. However, HC DeShaun Foster and his staff have managed to turn around their fortunes over the last two games, defeating @Rutgers 35-32 and @Nebraska 27-20. Now riding a two-game win streak, UCLA welcomes a strong Iowa team that has won their last two contests against Wisconsin and Northwestern by a combined score of 82-24. The Bruins are struggling to move the ball on the ground, ranking 2nd to last in FBS with a 30% rushing success rate and 3rd-to-last in yards before contact. Defensively they've been exceptional in containing offenses, ranking 8th in marginal explosiveness and 30th with a 5.3% 20+ play rate. However, they rank 124th with a 49% success rate allowed and 123rd in points per scoring opportunity.
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· Date: Friday, November 8, 2024
· Time: 9:00 PM EST
· Site: The Rose Bowl
· City: Pasadena, CA
· TV/Streaming: FOX
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The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of BetMGM:
We got a Sunday opening line of Iowa -5.5 but that spiked to -6.5 late in the evening. Iowa's moneyline is available anywhere from -205 to -250 at the moment, with UCLA toggling between +168 and +195 on BetMGM. The total is holding steady at 45.5 in early trading.
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) expects points in this game:
"Believe it or not Iowa has been an Over factory this season, going 8-1 to the Over while scoring 40+ points in three of their last four contests. On the other side UCLA has scored 35 and 27 points in their last two games, both of which cleared this game's 45.5 point game total. I'm following the trends and backing the OVER 45.5 points."
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