Tropical Storm Melissa poses an "extreme" risk to lives and property in Jamaica and Haiti, AccuWeather meteorologists warned in a Tuesday evening forecast sent to reporters.
Newsweek reached out to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) by email for comment.
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and comes as meteorologists have urged people living in hurricane-prone areas not to let their guard down as fall arrives. The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and runs through November 30.
NHC meteorologists anticipate that Melissa will strengthen into a hurricane by this weekend. The NHC warned there is "significant uncertainty" in the storm's path, making it especially crucial that people living nearby remain vigilant and prepare to act should the storm shift their way.
In the Tuesday forecast, AccuWeather meteorologists warned of extreme impacts in eastern Jamaica and southern Haiti. Haiti looks as though it will bear the brunt of the rain-related impacts, with rainfall amounts as high as 18 inches. Southern parts of the Dominican Republic could also be hit by extreme rain.
Jamaica could still see devastatingly high rainfall amounts up to 12 inches.
Jamaica will also likely see the strongest winds, with forecasts anticipating gusts between 80 and 100 mph that could batter the island from Thursday through Tuesday. Part of Haiti could also witness these impacts, with widespread gusts between 40 and 60 mph expected across parts of Cuba and the Dominican Republic.
A map of the storm's anticipated impacts shows the most extreme impacts hitting eastern Jamaica, southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A "high" risk of impacts is in place for all of Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and part of Cuba. Puerto Rico could see a "moderate" risk of impacts.
AccuWeather anticipates that Melissa could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by the weekend. A map showing the anticipated storm path shows Melissa taking a northern turn and then cutting west to skirt the southern coast of Jamaica.
However, NHC meteorologists have warned there is great uncertainty in the storm's path. Should the storm shift or slow, it could change rainfall totals and other impacts, meaning some areas might get hit even harder than expected.
"... [U]ncertainty in Melissa's track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals," the NHC said in a public advisory about the storm. "Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible."
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter in a forecast: "AccuWeather hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for a life-threatening, catastrophic flooding disaster across parts of the Caribbean, especially near steep terrain across parts of Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, should the storm move north and slow down considerably.
"If Melissa were to stall near the coast of one or more of the Greater Antilles, there could be a historic flooding disaster in that region due to repeated rounds of torrential tropical downpours. These communities are especially vulnerable to flooding, as seen in major flooding disasters in this area, including Hurricane Flora in 1963, which tragically claimed over 7,000 lives. More recently, in May 2004, devastating floods occurred across Hispaniola when nearly 20 inches of rain fell. While not from a tropical storm or hurricane, this is yet another example of the flood risk in the Caribbean."
Meteorologists will continue tracking the storm as it progresses. A hurricane watch is currently in effect for Haiti, with a tropical storm watch in place for Jamaica. The NHC urged people to complete all protection measures needed for life and property by Thursday.