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Notre Dame, NIU, Northwestern, Illinois in the playoff? Why each local team can - and can't - make the CFP


Notre Dame, NIU, Northwestern, Illinois in the playoff? Why each local team can - and can't - make the CFP

It's game week. College football returns all across the nation after Week 0 gave fans a taste of meaningful football for the first time since January.

A new season means new hopes for the teams around the Chicago area, which include Notre Dame, Illinois, Northwestern and Northern Illinois. That hope means a chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Here's why each local college football program can - and can't - make the College Football Playoff this year.

Why They Can

Simple enough: The Irish were runners-up in the CFP last season. They returned 18 players that started on the 2024 team, and added portal players who started at other Power 4 programs on top of that.

This doesn't even touch on the list of players - Bryce Young, Adon Shuler, Leonard Moore, Drayk Bowen, Jaden Greathouse, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, to name a few - who could enjoy breakout seasons or build upon what they put on display last season.

Sure, the Irish have a new starting quarterback in CJ Carr, but Love is a legit Heisman Trophy candidate with an offensive line that got better from where it was last season.

Head coach Marcus Freeman is hitting his stride leading the Irish, and he can get even better in a Playoff era where an 11-1 season guarantees Notre Dame a spot in the top 12.

Why They Can't

Notre Dame has so much pressure on its shoulders, even more than usual.

CJ Carr hasn't started a game at the college level before, and getting two Top-25 games right out of the gate is a lot to ask of the redshirt freshman. They need to stay healthy, too. Injuries to the defensive line is why the Irish fell in the national championship game.

The Irish have room for error, but they still need to take care of business against one of either Miami or Texas A&M. Losing both those games means the Irish aren't in control of their own destiny.

Why They Can

The Fighting Illini broke out last season with 10 wins and a bowl win against South Carolina. Luke Altmeyer is a tough quarterback the offense rallies around. Plus, the Illini return most of their starting offensive line and key playmakers on defense.

This is a team made up of returnees who know they can win in the Big Ten and have an avenue to do it this season with a favorable schedule.

Illinois has three tests on the schedule this season: Indiana, USC and Ohio State. The Illini travel to Bloomington to take on what should be a ranked Hoosiers team. However, they do get to play USC and Ohio State at home.

If Illinois finishes the regular season 11-1, there's a chance they could play in the Big Ten Title Game in Indianapolis this December. There's also a possibility the Illini go 12-0 if all the cards fall in their favor.

Why They Can't

With a favorable schedule, there isn't much room for error for Illinois.

The Illini can afford a loss to top-five-ranked Ohio State at home this season, but they need to avoid a speed bump. Those can happen in the Big Ten. Last season they had a chance to finish the season 10-2 and stumbled with a loss to Minnesota, which kept them out of the CFP.

Head coach Bret Bielema has the roster to get to the Playoff, but he needs to take care of business. The other teams that made the CFP last year did.

In this day and age of college football, Northwestern's biggest asset is being a member of the Big Ten. This means a great season will put the Wildcats in striking distance of the CFP. This was the case with Indiana last season, as IU had a great first season under head coach Curt Cignetti and made the playoff.

Northwestern leaned heavily on the portal this offseason, getting transfer players from FCS, Power 4 and Group of 5 teams who the NU staff believe bring the right fit to Evanston as head coach David Braun aims to build a consistent program that can challenge for a top-12 playoff spot.

By virtue of being in the Big Ten, they'll have a path to the Playoff. But, they need to have a great year. Playing Oregon and UCLA at home is helpful, but the Wildcats also open on the road at Tulane, get Michigan at Wrigley Field, plus they Nebraska, USC and Penn State on the road. It's a hard schedule for the 'Cats.

To get anywhere near the CFP, Northwestern will have to be 11-1 at minimum. That's a tough ask with the schedule they currently have.

Why They Can

There's a danger in overlooking Thomas Hammock's NIU team. Just ask Notre Dame what happened last year on their home turf.

The Huskies are consistently in games and have won consecutive bowl games for the first time since the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Now, NIU has a chance to take a massive step forward.

The team hired Quinn Sanders as its offensive coordinator from the University of Charleston. Sanders was the Golden Eagles head coach last year, and led the team to an 11-1 finish while the offense averaged 43.9 points per game. Quarterback Josh Holst enters the season as the next quarterback in line after Ethan Hampton transferred to Illinois, but Holst already has a bowl win under his belt after leading NIU to a win in the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl.

An infusion of transfers will deepen NIU's roster, but not supplement the returning players, as Hammock continues a development trend that can't be ignored in this day and age. There's a chance to make an early splash with games against Power 4 Maryland and Mississippi State.

The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion will get a guaranteed spot in the CFP. This gives the Huskies a guaranteed road to the Playoff.

It might take a little luck, but NIU should have a chance to win every game it plays this season.

Why They Can't

Even if there is an avenue built in for NIU to make the Playoff, that's a tough avenue to take because it's just so crowded.

NIU isn't the only Group of 5 team that has to take this road to the CFP. Memphis, Tulane, Boise State, Toldeo, UNLV and Liberty are all teams that are vying for that Group of 5 spot in the Playoff.

Winning the MAC in their final year would be a good start. But, the Huskies also don't have much room for error if they're competing against the likes of Boise State, which earned a CFP berth last season with a 12-1 record that also included a Mountain West Championship.

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