Infrastructure bottlenecks could cause Britain to miss its 2030 offshore wind target of 55 gigawatts, according to a new report by the Energy Industries Council (EIC)
The UK's project pipeline totals 96.4GW (51.4% floating), but despite this, only 43GW, including 818MW of floating capacity, is possible by the deadline. Only seven of the 82 projects have reached final investment decisions (FID).
The EIC UK and Europe Offshore Wind report highlights severe infrastructure and supply chain constraints across the continent, which directly impact UK delivery.
Only five specialist installation vessels operational in Europe, out of 80, can handle 14-15MW turbines, a Europe-wide limitation that affects UK projects competing for the same assets.
From permit to operation, port expansions typically require six to ten years, which conflicts directly with project timelines. FIDs and port capacity must align with auctions to achieve 2030 targets, as UK projects now rely on commitments with ports, grid, and the supply chain.
The UK's future Allocation Round 8 (AR8) of the Contracts for Difference (CfDs) scheme, scheduled for 2026, is too late for 2030 delivery, as it is the government's primary instrument for supporting low-carbon electricity projects by guaranteeing a fixed "strike price" for the power they generate. The current round, AR7, has its results due between December 2025 and February 2026, and is also unable to bridge the gap. The report underlines port readiness and supply-chain availability as active risks.
Adding further strain to ports and other supporting infrastructure is an upcoming wave of decommissions, with notable retirements including RWE's Scroby Sands between 2027 and 2031 and London Array toward 2038.
The UK is leading Europe's operational offshore wind capacity with 15.6GW, followed by Germany at 9GW and the Netherlands at 5.5GW. Europe holds 43% of global capacity and commissioned 2.7GW of the 4.2GW added over the past year, not including China. The technology divide is clear; a fixed-bottom still dominates the North Sea and Baltic, whereas floating is essential for the Mediterranean and Southern Europe. Europe already has 37.8GW operating across 150 wind farms.
The EU is working to unblock bottlenecks and accelerate the buildout. The drive is based on three levers, including the Wind Power Package, the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), and the Clean Industrial Deal. Focusing on faster permits, auction reform, and access to finance.
Under the NZIA, at least 30% of annual auctioned capacity must be awarded based on non-price criteria, so projects are judged on factors such as cost, supply chain resilience, sustainability, and job creation.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) is offering €6.5 billion in counter-guarantees for wind manufacturers and €250 million for mid-sized green manufacturing, with upcoming port upgrades at Esbjerg, Cuxhaven, Cork, and Bilbao. A second pressure track will be decommissioned in the 2030s, with approximately 366 turbines scheduled to come offline in 2035 and 540 in 2038. That load draws on the same vessels, ports, and finance.
Sharanya Kumaramurthy, EIC market intelligence manager (CAPEX), and co-author of the report, said: "The numbers tell a simple story, which is that Europe has scale in the pipeline, but delivery hinges on ports, vessels, auctions and faster investment decisions. Where those align, capacity arrives. Where they don't, targets slip."
The report was also written by Christopher Shirley, EIC market intelligence manager (Supply Chain) and Thomas Bacon, market intelligence manager (OPEX & Decommissioning).
The report also found that Chinese Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) outpace their European counterparts in annual installations, with manufacturing capacity approximately four times the size of Europe's. They supply turbines to Germany and Italy, with Mingyang's plans to manufacture its 18.8-MW turbine in Italy to supply projects like Med Wind.
Rebecca Groundwater, EIC's global head of external affairs, said: "Policy must lock in a predictable run of work and enable supply-chain finance. Use non-price criteria well, accelerate port upgrades, and keep capital flowing through EIB and national tools. That's how Europe converts a 411-GW pipeline into steel in the water."
She added: "The UK is aiming for 55 GW by 2030, but the current pipeline points to 43 GW at best -- with just seven projects at FID and key sites like Scroby Sands and the London Array heading for retirement, the focus has to be on getting new capacity to shore before the decade is out."
To view the full report, visit: https://www.the-eic.com/MediaCentre/Publications/Reports