MIAMI -- Typically, contenders size up the eventual NBA champion to measure challenges ahead.
For the Miami Heat, such an approach would be abject hubris in light of a 10th-place finish and 37-45 record.
Instead, with another month to go in the postseason, one the Heat exited three weeks ago, it arguably already is not too early to take stock of where they stand in the East, in the wake of the conference's playoff chaos and the further drama added by the draft lottery.
Already, we have seen the Cleveland Cavaliers look far less invincible than they stood against the Heat in the first round, exiting in the second.
We have seen Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard and Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum go down with Achilles injuries that cast shadows well into next season.
And we have seen the Philadelphia 76ers aided in their potential recovery from an injury-ravaged season with the No. 3 pick as a result of the lottery, while also seeing East lottery teams Washington, Charlotte, Brooklyn and Toronto failing to cash in on lottery luck of their own.
So where do the Heat stand, beyond home for the summer ... and what could be a very long winter ahead, as well?
In a curious spot.
Three weeks ago, as a 37-point loss to the Cavaliers turned into a 55-point loss two days later against Cleveland, the Heat were Sisyphus and the top of the East was the boulder that again appeared poised to knock them down next season to play-in level, at best.
But suddenly, the Cavaliers don't appear nearly as invincible as their 64-18 regular season or first-round pulverization of the Heat.
And even if Tatum wasn't going to miss most if not all of next season with his Achilles tear, the Celtics already had luxury-tax questions that assuredly will diminish their arsenal.
Beyond that, the Bucks have their own oversized issues with the loss of Lillard and renewed (if not overstated) uncertainty with Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Yes, the New York Knicks are for real, as seemingly are the Indiana Pacers. And the Detroit Pistons don't appear as if they're going anywhere.
And yet if, as they slumped off the court on April 28, the Heat were told the target level for contention next season would be the Knicks, Pacers and Pistons, perhaps it would not have been as bedraggled a retreat into the offseason.
No, the Cavaliers and Celtics are not going anywhere, with talent ample enough to succeed even with reshuffling. And if Antetokounmpo remains, the Bucks have shown an ability to remain afloat with a variety of Giannis rebuilds.
From a Heat perspective, it is a delicate dance not to confuse renewed hope with false hope.
The Heat not only finished 27 games behind the Cavaliers and 24 behind the Celtics, but also behind the Magic, Hawks and Bulls. They weren't just bad in 2024-25; they were very bad.
In this intervening period, Erik Spoelstra and Pat Riley have spoken of the unique challenges of this past season, primarily the grenade tossed into the locker room by Jimmy Butler ahead of his duck-and-cover departure.
So, yes, there were mitigating factors for the team's worst record in 10 years.
But this also is a team that with the current Bam Adebayo-Tyler Herro core has landed in the play-in round the past three years, its last direct playoff entry not since 2022.
With Cooper Flagg going west in the lottery, an immediate concern of being caught from beyond by one of the East lottery teams (other than Philadelphia) was alleviated for the Heat. If Antetokounmpo is dealt West and Kevin Durant stays West, it would further ease the East path.
But an East path doesn't mean an easy path for the Heat and should not be assumed as such by Heat management, even with Tatum and Lillard going down, even with the Cavaliers reeling.
Real work remains.
It is imperative that perspective does not become diluted or muted by an Eastern Conference seemingly ready to offer a second chance.
If there is a moment to be seized, it only can be seized by a mix superior to what exited amid embarrassment last month.